Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 445 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Yesterday

UA 445 · DEN → MIA

departs 4:00 PM MT · arrives 9:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 445 · DEN → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?