Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1502
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 1502 · DCA → MCO
departs 5:41 PM ET · arrives 8:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 37%
Fri 10/30 38%
Sat 10/31 25%
Mon 11/2 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±3 pts
+17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
5pm departures from DCA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.