Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1502
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 1502 · DCA → MCO
departs 5:31 PM ET · arrives 7:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Wed 10/28 50%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 38%
Sat 10/31 25%
Mon 11/2 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.