Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 449
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 449 · MIA → AUS
departs 11:30 AM ET · arrives 1:26 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 35%
Fri 10/30 33%
Mon 11/2 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
11am departures from MIA are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at AUS that day
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,633 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.24 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.