Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 818
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 818 · DCA → MDW
departs 6:36 PM ET · arrives 7:36 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 28%
Fri 10/30 29%
Sat 10/31 17%
Mon 11/2 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.