Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 818
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 818 · DCA → MDW
departs 5:56 PM ET · arrives 7:02 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Wed 10/28 22%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 29%
Sat 10/31 17%
Mon 11/2 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.