WN 9000 · SAN → OGG

took off 11:52 AM PT · landed 2:34 PM HT (scheduled 11:05 AM PT → 2:07 PM HT)

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to OGG?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1.5 mi, 2.4 in of rain forecast at OGG that day

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip1.54 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 9000 · SAN → OGG

Odds over time

How late did it get to OGG?