Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 9000
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 9000 · SAN → OGG
departs 11:07 AM PT · arrives 2:15 PM HT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Thu 10/29 34%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 21%
Sun 11/1 27%
Mon 11/2 28%
Tue 11/3 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at OGG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OGG?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
OGG is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↑
11am departures from SAN are often late
↓
Arrivals into OGG at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
OGG (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.