Schedule: FAA flight plans.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4570 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 8:10 PM ET (15 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Wednesday, October 28 Today

YX 4570 · DCA → MCI

departs 7:41 PM ET · arrives 9:35 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Arrivals into MCI at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4570 · DCA → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?