Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4570 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

YX 4570 · DCA → MCI

departs 7:44 PM ET · arrives 9:37 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into MCI at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at DCA that day

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4570 · DCA → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?