Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5763
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
YX 5763 · DCA → LGA
departs 5:40 PM ET · arrives 6:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 35%
Fri 10/30 62%
Sat 10/31 30%
Sun 11/1 52%
Mon 11/2 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 47% of the time recently
↑
5pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.