Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5763
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
YX 5763 · DCA → LGA
departs 5:40 PM ET · arrives 6:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Wed 10/28 25%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 62%
Sat 10/31 30%
Sun 11/1 52%
Mon 11/2 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 47% of the time recently
↑
5pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.