Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2173 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AA 2173 · DCA → CLT

departs 7:18 PM ET · arrives 8:46 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2173 · DCA → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?