Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2203 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AA 2203 · DCA → CHS

departs 8:37 PM ET · arrives 10:27 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at CHS more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CHS?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CHS

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CHS (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2203 · DCA → CHS

Odds over time

How late will it get to CHS?