Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3219 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Today

AA 3219 · CLT → SDF

departs 4:07 PM ET · arrives 5:38 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at CLT that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3219 · CLT → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?