Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3219 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

AA 3219 · CLT → SDF

departs 3:28 PM ET · arrives 4:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3219 · CLT → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?