Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1234
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Yesterday
DL 1234 · ATL → MIA
departs 8:48 PM ET · arrives 10:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Today 35%
Sun 11/1 41%
Mon 11/2 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
8pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at ATL that day
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 3,100 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.