Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1243
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Today
DL 1243 · TPA → DTW
departs 6:05 PM ET · arrives 8:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1 28%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↑
6pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.