Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1768
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
DL 1768 · MCO → MSP
departs 6:30 PM ET · arrives 9:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Wed 10/28 39%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 23%
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 28%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,867 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.