Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2191
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Yesterday
DL 2191 · SAN → MSP
departs 5:56 PM PT · arrives 11:24 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Today 42%
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↓
This flight has been late 16% of the time recently
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.