Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2492
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
DL 2492 · YYC → MSP
departs 7:46 AM MDT · arrives 11:24 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Wed 10/28 44%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 9%
Sat 10/31 12%
Sun 11/1 10%
Mon 11/2 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave YYC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at YYC
↑
Other factors
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
YYC (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,867 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.