Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2527
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Yesterday
DL 2527 · ATL → EWR
departs 8:08 PM ET · arrives 10:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Today 42%
Sun 11/1 31%
Mon 11/2 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
8pm departures from ATL are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at ATL that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.