Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2529
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Today
DL 2529 · MCO → AUS
departs 6:15 PM ET · arrives 8:01 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/30 33%
Sun 11/1 36%
Mon 11/2 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at MCO that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.