Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2974
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
DL 2974 · MSP → LAX
departs 2:52 PM CT · arrives 4:52 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 10/28 18%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from MSP are often late
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,867 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.