Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3928
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 3928 · DCA → MEM
departs 8:14 PM ET · arrives 9:29 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 19%
Sun 11/1 28%
Mon 11/2 19%
Tue 11/3 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MEM at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at DCA that day
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
MEM (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.