Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3928
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3928 · DCA → MEM
departs 8:25 PM ET · arrives 9:58 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Thu 10/29 23%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 28%
Mon 11/2 19%
Tue 11/3 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MEM at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MEM (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.