Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4304
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
MQ 4304 · MIA → DOM
departs 10:16 AM ET · arrives 1:57 PM AST
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Wed 10/28 17%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 19%
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at DOM more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DOM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at DOM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DOM?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from MIA are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
MIA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
DOM usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DOM (destination)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.