Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5090 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

OH 5090 · MSP → DCA

departs 6:23 PM CT · arrives 9:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling9,167 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

DCA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5090 · MSP → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?