Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5111 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

OH 5111 · DCA → BTV

departs 10:13 PM ET · arrives 11:57 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at BTV more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BTV?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ 10pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at DCA that day

↓ BTV usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

BTV (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5111 · DCA → BTV

Odds over time

How late will it get to BTV?