Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5111 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

OH 5111 · DCA → BTV

departs 10:08 PM ET · arrives 11:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at BTV more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BTV?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ BTV usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BTV (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5111 · DCA → BTV

Odds over time

How late will it get to BTV?