Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5140 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

OH 5140 · DCA → GSO

departs 6:07 PM ET · arrives 7:39 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 31h before departure

Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GSO?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at GSO that day

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

GSO (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5140 · DCA → GSO

Odds over time

How late will it get to GSO?