Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5140 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

OH 5140 · DCA → GSO

departs 6:02 PM ET · arrives 7:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GSO?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GSO

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GSO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5140 · DCA → GSO

Odds over time

How late will it get to GSO?