WN 4280 · MDW → OAK

departs 10:10 AM CT · arrives 12:49 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OAK?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ MDW is prone to delays

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

OAK (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4280 · MDW → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?