Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4280
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 4280 · MDW → OAK
departs 10:00 AM CT · arrives 12:24 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/29 16%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 17%
Tue 11/3 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↑
MDW is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.