Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
WESTJET · FLIGHT WS 1530
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WS 1530 · YEG → MSP
departs 9:40 AM MDT · arrives 1:31 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 12%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 11%
Mon 11/2 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave YEG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.7 in of snow forecast at YEG that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
9am departures from YEG are usually not late
Weather at each end
YEG (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.04 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,867 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.