Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4382
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 4382 · DCA → BOS
departs 7:55 PM ET · arrives 9:39 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 15%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 33%
Mon 11/2 14%
Tue 11/3 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at DCA that day
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.