Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4382
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 4382 · DCA → BOS
departs 8:09 PM ET · arrives 10:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/29 17%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 33%
Mon 11/2 14%
Tue 11/3 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.