AA 1514 · DFW → ELP

took off 9:42 PM CT · expected to land 9:57 PM MT (scheduled 8:54 PM CT → 9:49 PM MT)

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ELP?

LIVE

On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
37%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling9,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.06 in

ELP (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1514 · DFW → ELP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELP?