AA 1533 · MIA → DCA

took off 7:12 PM ET · expected to land 9:20 PM ET (scheduled 7:06 PM ET → 9:47 PM ET)

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at DCA that day

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1533 · MIA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?