AA 1921 · MIA → TPA

departs 8:02 PM ET · arrives 9:15 PM ET

Your aircraft is N737US (A319), coming in as AA 909 from SVD: landed 6:30 PM ET.

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at TPA that day

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1921 · MIA → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?