Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1921 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

AA 1921 · MIA → TPA

departs 7:56 PM ET · arrives 9:07 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.49 in

TPA (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1921 · MIA → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?