AA 915 · MIA → BOG

took off 7:42 PM ET · expected to land 9:43 PM -05 (scheduled 7:30 PM ET → 10:09 PM -05)

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at BOG more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BOG?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Arrivals into BOG at that hour are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOG

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

BOG (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 915 · MIA → BOG

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOG?