Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 915 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 915 · MIA → BOG

departs 7:18 PM ET · arrives 10:58 PM -05

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at BOG more than 15 minutes late?

66% chance · ±8 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOG?

On time or early
27%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
20%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOG

↓ Arrivals into BOG at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip1.29 in

BOG (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 915 · MIA → BOG

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOG?