DL 1280 · ATL → MSP

took off 8:44 PM ET · expected to land 9:50 PM CT (scheduled 8:38 PM ET → 10:18 PM CT)

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSP?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from ATL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ ATL is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1280 · ATL → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?