Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1280 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

DL 1280 · ATL → MSP

departs 8:47 PM ET · arrives 10:22 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±4 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from ATL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ DL's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

MSP (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1280 · ATL → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?