Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3956
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3956 · JAX → MIA
departs 6:21 PM ET · arrives 7:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/29 28%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 32%
Sun 11/1 29%
Mon 11/2 29%
Tue 11/3 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.