Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4264
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 4264 · MSP → ABR
departs 8:10 PM CT · arrives 9:27 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 10%
Sun 11/1 11%
Mon 11/2 11%
Tue 11/3 12%
Wed 11/4 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at ABR more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ABR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at ABR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ABR?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from MSP are often late
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 9,567 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ABR (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 8,833 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.