Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4264
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
OO 4264 · MSP → ABR
departs 8:03 PM CT · arrives 9:21 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Fri 10/30 8%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 11%
Mon 11/2 11%
Tue 11/3 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at ABR more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ABR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at ABR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ABR?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from MSP are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
ABR usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.04 in
ABR (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.