Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5998
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 5998 · SBN → ORD
departs 1:04 PM ET · arrives 1:06 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Thu 10/29 29%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 40%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 23%
Tue 11/3 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBN
Weather at each end
SBN (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.