WN 2417 · LAS → SJC

took off 8:58 PM PT · expected to land 10:02 PM PT (scheduled 8:19 PM PT → 9:57 PM PT)

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SJC?

LIVE

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 8pm departures from LAS are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

SJC (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2417 · LAS → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?